Terrace reconstruction and long profile projection: a case study from the Solent river system near Southampton, England

River terrace sequences are important frameworks for archaeological evidence and as such it is important to produce robust correlations between what are often fragmentary remnants of ancient terraces. This paper examines both conceptual and practical issues related to such correlations, using a case study from the eastern part of the former Solent River system near Southampton, England. In this region two recent terrace schemes have been constructed using different data to describe the terrace deposits: one based mainly on terrace surfaces; the other on gravel thicknesses, often not recording the terrace surface itself. The utility of each of these types of data in terrace correlation is discussed in relation to the complexity of the record, the probability of post-depositional alteration of surface sediments and comparison of straight-line projections with modern river long profiles. Correlation using age estimates is also discussed, in relation to optically-stimulated luminescence dating of sand lenses within terrace gravels in this region during the PASHCC project. It is concluded that the need for replication at single sites means that this approach has limited use for correlative purposes, although dating of sediments is important for understanding wider landscape evolution and patterns of human occupation

Early Ipswichian (last interglacial) sea level rise in the Channel region: Stone Point Site of Special Scientific Interest, Hampshire, England.

Constraining the speed of sea level rise at the start of an interglacial is important to understanding the size of the ‘window of opportunity’ available for hominin migration. This is particularly important during the last interglacial when there is no evidence for significant hominin occupation anywhere in Britain. There are very few finer grained fossiliferous sequences in the Channel region that can be used to constrain sea level rise and they are preserved only to the north of the Channel, in England. Of these, the sequence at Stone Point SSSI is by far the most complete. Data from this sequence has been previously reported, and discussed at a Quaternary Research Association Field Meeting, where a number of further questions were raised that necessitated further data generation. In this paper, we report new data from this sequence – thin section analysis, isotopic determinations on ostracod shells, new OSL ages and AAR analyses. These show early sea level rise in this sequence, starting during the pre-temperate vegetation zone IpI, but no early warming. The implications of this almost certainly last interglacial sequence for the human colonisation of Britain and our understanding of the stratigraphic relationship of interglacial estuarine deposits with their related fluvial terrace sequences is explored

Early Ipswichian (last interglacial) sea level rise in the channel region : Stone Point Site of Special Scientific Interest, Hampshire, England

Constraining the speed of sea level rise at the start of an interglacial is important to understanding the size of the ‘window of opportunity’ available for hominin migration. This is particularly important during the last interglacial when there is no evidence for significant hominin occupation anywhere in Britain. There are very few finer grained fossiliferous sequences in the Channel region that can be used to constrain sea level rise and they are preserved only to the north of the Channel, in England. Of these, the sequence at Stone Point SSSI is by far the most complete. Data from this sequence has been previously reported, and discussed at a Quaternary Research Association Field Meeting, where a number of further questions were raised that necessitated further data generation. In this paper, we report new data from this sequence – thin section analysis, isotopic determinations on ostracod shells, new Optical Stimulated Luminescence ages and Amino Acid Recem analyses. These show early sea level rise in this sequence, starting during the pre-temperate vegetation zone IpI, but no early warming. The implications of this almost certainly last interglacial sequence for the human colonisation of Britain and our understanding of the stratigraphic relationship of interglacial estuarine deposits with their related fluvial terrace sequences is explored

Early Ipswichian (last interglacial) sea level rise in the channel region : Stone Point Site of Special Scientific Interest, Hampshire, England

Constraining the speed of sea level rise at the start of an interglacial is important to understanding the size of the ‘window of opportunity’ available for hominin migration. This is particularly important during the last interglacial when there is no evidence for significant hominin occupation anywhere in Britain. There are very few finer grained fossiliferous sequences in the Channel region that can be used to constrain sea level rise and they are preserved only to the north of the Channel, in England. Of these, the sequence at Stone Point SSSI is by far the most complete. Data from this sequence has been previously reported, and discussed at a Quaternary Research Association Field Meeting, where a number of further questions were raised that necessitated further data generation. In this paper, we report new data from this sequence – thin section analysis, isotopic determinations on ostracod shells, new Optical Stimulated Luminescence ages and Amino Acid Recem analyses. These show early sea level rise in this sequence, starting during the pre-temperate vegetation zone IpI, but no early warming. The implications of this almost certainly last interglacial sequence for the human colonisation of Britain and our understanding of the stratigraphic relationship of interglacial estuarine deposits with their related fluvial terrace sequences is explored

Palaeolithic geoarchaeology: palaeolandscape modelling and scales of investigation

The present day landscape context of Palaeolithic artefacts is very different to that of their original use and deposition. Reconstructing the contemporary landscapes that were associated with even the best known sites is often unusually fraught with problems. This paper argues that a landscape-based approach is essential to contextualise our limited but growing knowledge of early human activity in Britain. Further, it argues through a series of case studies at macro, meso and micro level that the use of landscape concepts at a variety of spatial and temporal scales can increase our understanding of the Palaeolithic beyond individual sites. Most importantly, a landscape framework starts to give added meaning to the disturbed and transported material which predominates in fluvial contexts, but which has often been regarded as of insufficient significance to merit research protection or research. Indeed, researching such data in a landscape context - treating it as a time- and space-averaged sample - might give a more representative view of the Palaeolithic world, for example explaining general patterns of material cultural change, and of Palaeolithic peoples' landscape perceptions, than even highly preserved evidence from a few square metres representing one afternoon in the distant past

Detecting Associations between Archaeological Site Distributions and Landscape Features: A Monte Carlo Simulation Approach for the R Environment

Detecting association between archaeological sites and physical landscape elements like geological deposits, vegetation, drainage networks, or areas of modern disturbance like mines or quarries is a key goal of archaeological projects. This goal is complicated by the incomplete nature of the archaeological record, the high degree of uncertainty of typical point distribution patterns, and, in the case of deeply buried archaeological sites, the absence of reliable information about the ancient landscape itself. Standard statistical approaches may not be applicable (e.g. X2 test) or are difficult to apply correctly (regression analysis). Monte Carlo simulation, devised in the late 1940s by mathematical physicists, offers a way to approach this problem. In this paper, we apply a Monte Carlo approach to test for association between Lower and Middle Palaeolithic sites in Hampshire and Sussex, UK, and quarries recorded on historical maps. We code our approach in the popular ‘R’ software environment, describing our methods step-by-step and providing complete scripts so others can apply our method to their own cases. Association between sites and quarries is clearly shown. We suggest ways to develop the approach further, e.g. for detecting associations between sites or artefacts and remotely-sensed deposits or features, e.g. from aerial photographs or geophysical survey

Evaluation of prognostic risk models for postoperative pulmonary complications in adult patients undergoing major abdominal surgery: a systematic review and international external validation cohort study

Background Stratifying risk of postoperative pulmonary complications after major abdominal surgery allows clinicians to modify risk through targeted interventions and enhanced monitoring. In this study, we aimed to identify and validate prognostic models against a new consensus definition of postoperative pulmonary complications. Methods We did a systematic review and international external validation cohort study. The systematic review was done in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. We searched MEDLINE and Embase on March 1, 2020, for articles published in English that reported on risk prediction models for postoperative pulmonary complications following abdominal surgery. External validation of existing models was done within a prospective international cohort study of adult patients (≥18 years) undergoing major abdominal surgery. Data were collected between Jan 1, 2019, and April 30, 2019, in the UK, Ireland, and Australia. Discriminative ability and prognostic accuracy summary statistics were compared between models for the 30-day postoperative pulmonary complication rate as defined by the Standardised Endpoints in Perioperative Medicine Core Outcome Measures in Perioperative and Anaesthetic Care (StEP-COMPAC). Model performance was compared using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROCC). Findings In total, we identified 2903 records from our literature search; of which, 2514 (86·6%) unique records were screened, 121 (4·8%) of 2514 full texts were assessed for eligibility, and 29 unique prognostic models were identified. Nine (31·0%) of 29 models had score development reported only, 19 (65·5%) had undergone internal validation, and only four (13·8%) had been externally validated. Data to validate six eligible models were collected in the international external validation cohort study. Data from 11 591 patients were available, with an overall postoperative pulmonary complication rate of 7·8% (n=903). None of the six models showed good discrimination (defined as AUROCC ≥0·70) for identifying postoperative pulmonary complications, with the Assess Respiratory Risk in Surgical Patients in Catalonia score showing the best discrimination (AUROCC 0·700 [95% CI 0·683–0·717]). Interpretation In the pre-COVID-19 pandemic data, variability in the risk of pulmonary complications (StEP-COMPAC definition) following major abdominal surgery was poorly described by existing prognostication tools. To improve surgical safety during the COVID-19 pandemic recovery and beyond, novel risk stratification tools are required. Funding British Journal of Surgery Society